Saturday, August 7, 2010

The New Symbol for the Rupee


Sooner or later the government will announce its choice for a unique symbol for the rupee.In fact this was to have been announced last month.Yet, for the new signage to act as a signpost for the future of India's currency, the govt. must pull out all its policy stops that erode the strength of the rupee vis-a-vis other currencies.
It is no secret that the govt. shies away from the prospects of a strong rupee. Mainly this is a blinkered approach that is solely guided by the interests & lobbying strength of India's exporters; those from the IT sector, in particular, & earlier jewellery & textile exporters. When this country's currency appreciates against other currencies- the US dollar in particular- the rupee earnings of firms that are exporting IT services to other countries would take a hit. Such is their figurative as well as real importance in the national economy that the govt. & Reserve Bank have opted to work towards keeping the rupee artifially weak against other currencies in recent times.
There is the case of China that has flooded global markets with its goods that are led by a cheap renminbi. However, there are several counter-arguments that favor the view hat in the medium & long term this country would be better served by a stronger rupee. A strong rupee does not necessarily imply weak exports. Almost all of India's exports are associated with low technology as well. This is particularly true of the IT sector. Much of the export basket in this sector comprises how value services that were outsourced by the US & other advanced economies in their boom areas. Now the necessity to boost domestic economies & jobs at home are bound to curtail the growth of outsourcing in the coming years- at least the low-value part of it. New growth of global trade will be driven by silos where technology & production quality is more important than ever before.
A stronger rupee could provide a compelling solution in this scenario. For one it would bring down the cost of technology imports as well as cheaper raw materials that could be used for value-added exports in turn. Notably, this would benefit the entire manufacturing sector & all the inputs that it requires. People & companies from this country are involved in the development of high technology almost everywhere. It is just that an artificial cheap rupee cancelsout the reasons to create such products & services at home, especially for exports.
Many exciting things will happen around the new symbol. There will be intensive publicity campaigns. However, like everything else in business, strong symbols deem stronger substance. That necessarily be the future of the rupee.

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